Dunning-Kruger and Illusory Superiority

Do you know what you don't know?

“What’s more dangerous than ignorance is being ignorant of your ignorance.”

— Adam Grant

At a critical juncture during a mediation last week, each party announced abruptly that its position was firm and politely threatened to conclude the negotiation session. They wanted to “take it to the judge” instead of continuing a mediated effort to settle their case.

I know, I thought to myself, I’ll help these parties “reality-test” their positions. If I can enable them to see that taking this case to trial is very risky, they’ll more appreciate the reality of the situation and value of resolution.

In consecutive private caucuses — that is, talking in turn with each party in private — I asked the two experienced, opposing attorneys this question: “So where do you put your odds of winning this case?”

Attorney #1: “We have a 75% chance of winning. Maybe more.”

Then, Attorney #2: “I love our chances. I’d say 75%. And that’s being conservative.”

And this happens all the time. In fact, I’m surprised when …